Sistema experto para tomar decisiones de emergencias y seguridad ante meteorología adversa

EXPERT SISTEM FOR MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT EMERGENCY AND SAFETY IN CASE OF ADVERSE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

Abstract

The volume of information used in the Emergency

Coordination Center (1-1-2 CECOES), which depends

on the Canary Government, during and after any

adverse weather phenomenon (FMA in Spanish) is

now significantly greater than before, The amount of

bulletins warnings and forecasts about FMA sent by the

Meteorological Agency (AEMET), and received at the

1-1-2 CECOES, is really considerable. The information

should be treated as soon as possible in order to

generate the corresponding pre-alerts and notifications,

as well as public notices to the citizens.

The rule-based expert systems can overcome the human

capacity, for example, when required to analyze a large

volume of data in a limited period of time, as in the

emergency services. Moreover, Fuzzy Logic is an artificial

intelligence methodology that is effective when dealing

with vagueness or ambiguity, erroneous or absence of

information, something that the emergency services are

used to: for example, “It rains a lot”, “the storm is far

away”, “ it is windy” and “we have low temperatures” ,

are typical responses given by some callers when they

alert 1-1-2. Finally, Weather Forecasts usually work

with imprecise concepts such as: possibility, (when

the probability that a weather phenomenon occurs is

between 10 and 40%) and probability, (when between

40 and 70%).

We have primarily developed an expert helping-system

for decision-making based on an inference engine

implemented with Fuzzy Logic in CECOES 1-1-2. This

system is able to provide clear answers at the inaccuracy

or lack of information, and if trained with real cases,

it can improve human behavior giving a quick and

effective response.