Modelos de evaluación integrada (IAMs) aplicados al cambio climático y la transición energética

Abstract

The current climate change is due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. The large number of factors and variables that, directly or indirectly, affect GHG emissions, as well as the multiple and complex relationships between them, became difficult to make decisions about the best steps to take to curb or alleviate climate change and the analysis of the consequences that each decision drags. This has led to the development of complex simulation models called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or Energy-Economy-Environment (E3 models), focused especially on climate change. The development and use of these models to guide policy decisions on climate change has grown in recent years, as highlighted in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This work is a panoramic review of the main existing IAMs and discusses their main features. The article focuses especially on analyzing the limitations of current IAMs, which should drive future developments in these tools.