Método para el análisis de tecnologías basado en curvas logísticas y redes bayesianas

Abstract

Current technology can be described as a

complex system composed of several subsystems,

components and parts. Understanding how

each of these elements evolves over time,

decision makers can improve their strategies

linking it with technology development. In this

paper is presented a methodology that helps

to identify technological elements that have

a higher probability for development in the

future according the evolution of their patents.

The methodology is based on the integration

of tools and models allowing to describe and

analyze a system technology, additionally an

indicator is proposed to identify the opportunity

development in the future among the different

elements for a specific time of interest. Six

steps are proposed using a structured approach

for the development and application of the

methodology. Additionally, a case study was

introduced to validate the effectiveness and

usability of the methodology in a real case study.